International Scientific and Academic Research Publisher
Modeling of Forecasting the Number of Passenger Departures at I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport Using the Double Exponential Smoothing and Triple Exponential Smoothing Methods
Author: I Made Subrata Sandhiyasa*, I Gede Bagus Arya Negara, Ida Bagus Gede Sarasvananda, Ketut Jaya Atmaja, I Gede Iwan Sudipa
Published Date: 2024-08-22
Keywords: Forecasting, Number of Passengers, Double Exponential Smoothing, Triple Exponential Smoothing, Bali International Airport.
Abstract:
This study aims to determine the comparison of forecasting methods where the number of passenger departures at I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport by comparing the Double Exponential Smoothing and Triple Exponential Smoothing methods. The data used is data on the number of passenger departures at the Domestic terminal and International terminal obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The best method obtained is Triple Exponential Smoothing with Additive model for Domestic terminal with constant value α = 0.8182143, β = 0.0001 and 𝛾 = 0.0454464. As for the International terminal, the best method obtained is Triple Exponential Smoothing with the Multiplicative model with α = 0.9950000, β = 0.0001, 𝛾 = 0.0025000. The accuracy results obtained for the Domestic terminal show a MAPE of 43.68% and MSE of 2437198490.0082073. While the International terminal gets a MAPE of 44.85% and an MSE of 1486733955.6781428.